Last month, as the world began to grapple with the economic reality of the coronavirus outbreak, Bitcoin fell off a cliff — tumbling from $7,700 to $3,700 within the span of two days, a drop of over 50%.
Since then, a question that has plagued investors is if Bitcoin bottomed during that crash. While there is no decisive answer yet as BTC is “still not out of the woods,” so to say, there is evidence mounting that the March crash cemented a new macro low for this market.
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Bitcoin Bottom Might Be In, Market Volume Shows
The March crash was marked by a massive surge in volumes. During the plunge, volumes on derivatives exchanges went through the roof as high-leverage traders tried to profit from the near-record levels of volatility, while buying activity picked up on spot exchanges.
According to Mohit Sorout — partner at crypto exchange Bitazu Capital — this could be a clear sign that the bottom is in, remarking how Coinbase data indicates that every single macro top and bottom for the asset over the past 2.5 years has been marked by a series of high-volume trading weeks like the ones we’ve just seen.
Spot volume on $BTC is trying to tell something.
Wonder what it means. pic.twitter.com/TrSP4vX63k
— Mohit Sorout (@singhsoro) April 18, 2020
To add to this, crypto analytics firm Glassnode observed that one of its proprietary indicators, which tracks the profitability of short-term BTC holders, is on the verge of entering a territory that has historically coincided with the end of bear trends and the start of full-blown bull markets.
Similar Sentiment On Wall Street
Wall Street traders and analysts are also starting to agree that the bottom for the S&P 500 and other equity markets is in as well, boding well for Bitcoin, which has largely traded in-step with American stocks over the past four weeks.
Goldman Sachs — the multinational investment bank — wrote in a research note published last week that their downside target of 2,000 points has been invalidated, calling it “no longer likely.” They continued that from how they see it, an 8% rally from the current price to 3,000 by year-end is highly possible.
To back their optimistic assertion, which is a reversal from the calls for a 2,000 S&P 500, they cited a “flattening [of the] viral curve” and “unprecedented policy support” from the government that could help stocks (and Bitcoin too).
Goldman’s analysts added that S&P 500 bear markets usually “trough shortly before economic data inflect,” again suggesting the bottom is behind the market. The above chart of “weeks between S&P 500 bear market bottom and peak in weekly jobless claims” shows this.
As Bitcoin continues to track the stock market, it would suggest that should the S&P 500 continue its rapid ascent higher, so too should the value of cryptocurrencies.
Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Retakes $7,000, China’s CBDC Is Here, Wall Street Wants BTC & Ethereum
Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash