Bitcoin is poised to experience volatility during today’s trading session. The crypto market is gearing up for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which could result in a no-event or push risk-on assets down.
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During this meeting, the Fed is expected to announce a hike in interest rates. According to trading desk QCP Capital, the market has ruled out the possibility of a 100 basis points (bps) increase.
Market participants expect a 75 bps, if the Fed meets expectations Bitcoin and other digital assets seem likely to resume their bullish momentum. QCP Capital said:
Every FOMC meeting this year has seen a positive immediate market reaction to the rate decision. We expect the same for this one.
In addition, the trading firm claims that there is a possibility of more upside based on the Fed adopting a “one-off 75 bps” hike. In the future, the financial institution could return to 50 bps on the back of a slow down in inflation metrics.
Contributing to this theory, U.S. public companies earning season has reported under expectations without major surprises so far. Tomorrow, July 28th, Apple and other big tech companies are expected to publish their earnings reports.
If there are no major surprises, the crypto market should benefit from both the FOMC meeting and a relief in legacy financial markets. On the latter, QCP Capital noted:
With the risk of an overly hawkish fed out of the way and with inflation slowing down, we think that markets will remain supported with the previous lows providing a base (BTC at 17,600 and ETH at 880).
The post-FOMC rally could be short-lived as Bitcoin and the crypto market continue to see high selling pressure from miners. In that sense, QCP Capital predicts sideways movement for the short to mid-term.
What Could Trigger More Downside Pressure?
The trading firm believes there is a wild card with the potential to negatively impact global markets. U.S. Representative for Congress and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is apparently planning a visit to Taiwan.
If the visit ever materializes, there could be an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and China. QCP Capital said:
August tends to be quieter with the US and Europe on summer vacation. If tensions boil over, we might see a risk-off move in thin liquidity. From a volatility perspective, every FOMC this year has been a disappointment.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $21,400 with a 3% profit in the last 24 hours.
BTC’s price trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview