Digital asset management platform Blofin has released a report that explores the changing narrative of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on the diverging correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
The report suggests that BTC is becoming an increasingly prominent macro underlying asset, approaching the status of traditional assets such as foreign exchange and precious metals, while ETH’s narrative is shifting towards mega stocks.
BTC Gaining Prominence As Macro Underlying Asset
According to the report, the attractiveness of ETH for liquidity may continue to be weaker than that of BTC, especially in the current era of “lack of liquidity,” unless there is a grander narrative and widespread application.
Moreover, the report notes that a new Crypto 3.0 narrative has emerged, which combines macro trading, artificial intelligence (AI), and other factors. The report suggests that BTC’s macro attributes have been continuously strengthened by existing and external liquidity preferences, with the Bitcoin network becoming a natural macro underlying asset.
The report also highlights the importance of BTC being a fully compliant asset, unlike ETH, which has not been recognized as a security by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This ambiguity around ETH’s status implies risk, while BTC has been identified as a commodity. Institutions are less likely to take risks on compliance, making BTC the preferred choice for many investors.
Last but not least, the report also considers three scenarios for the future price of BTC, depending on changes in interest rates and market expectations.
The most optimistic scenario involves a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) passing and pushing BTC’s market share up to 60%, resulting in a market cap of $960b and a unit price of over $49,400.
However, if investors have no better expectations and the crypto market capitalization is limited, the market capitalization of BTC will fluctuate between $600-$700b, and the price will fluctuate between $30,880-$36,026.
Caution Until Bitcoin Can Sustain Above $32,000
Capriole Invest, a leading provider of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investment strategies, has released its latest Bitcoin Macro Index report.
The report provides a comprehensive and data-driven analysis of the current state of the cryptocurrency market, combining over 40 powerful on-chain, macro market, and equity indicators into a single machine-learning model.
The report reveals that Bitcoin is facing significant resistance at the $32,000 mark, despite a series of positive news stories for the industry in recent weeks.
While the Blackrock ETF announcement, XRP legal victory, and backing from presidential candidate Kennedy for backing the US Dollar with Bitcoin have all made headlines, they have not been able to sustain momentum above $31,000.
According to the report, until Bitcoin can convincingly sustain price levels above $32,000, it is prudent to be conservative in the upper $30,000 region. On the high timeframe technicals, Bitcoin has failed to break out of weekly resistance at $32,000, suggesting a greater area of opportunity on a $32,000 break or reversion to the mid-$20,000s.
The report concludes that while opportunities for trades may exist if the range lows can hold on to the lower time-frames at the end of the day, the risk-reward opportunity is not present for high-conviction investments. Despite a 50% increase in Bitcoin’s mining network in the last six months, long-term value remains, but now is probably not the time to go all-in.
At present, Bitcoin is facing a challenge to maintain its position above the crucial $30,000 line, which is a fundamental psychological level for investors with a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
The leading digital asset in the market is currently trading at $29,750, indicating a 0.8% decline in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com