The Bitcoin community is currently abuzz with discussions of an impending supply shock, a market phenomenon where demand outstrips supply, potentially leading to a substantial price increase. Indicators from various sectors within the market are currently converging, suggesting that such an event may be closer than many anticipate. Here’s an in-depth look at three signs for an impending supply shock:
#1 Surging Demand For Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin ETFs have been creating an exceptionally large demand since their launch. Initially, this demand surge was somewhat moderated due to significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC). However, day 13 of the Bitcoin ETFs showed once again that the Grayscale outflows are slowly slowing down (yesterday: $220.7 million, previously $191.7 million), while the last two trading days saw net inflows for all ETF issuers of around $250 million.
Dan Ripoll, managing director at Swan, provided a detailed analysis on the sheer magnitude of this. “The Bitcoin spot ETFs have already snatched up 150,500 BTC in just 13 trading days. They are buying at a rate of 12,000 BTC per day. Now, let’s KISS (keep it simple stupid). There are only 900 BTC per day being issued. BTC is being bought up at a rate of 13x daily issuance. In 3 months, the issuance will be cut in half, driving the demand/supply imbalance to a staggering 26x daily issuance!”
Furthermore, Alessandro Ottaviani, a respected Bitcoin analyst, underscored the potential market shift, stating, “Now that the Bitcoin ETF inflow will always be higher than the Grayscale outflow, the only way to accommodate that demand will be through an increase of price. Once we reach $60k and even more after the new ATH, Institutional FOMO will be officially triggered, and it will be something that the human being has never experienced.”
WhalePanda, a renowned crypto analyst, highlighted recent activities, adding credibility to the brewing supply shock: “Yesterday another ~$250 million net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs with Blackrock doing a solid $300 million all by itself. Two days of $250 million inflow, the price didn’t rally much yesterday, but a couple of days like this, and you’ll see what kind of supply shock this will have on BTC.”
#2 Massive Bitcoin Miner Selling Absorbed
Despite a substantial flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges, the market has shown remarkable resilience. According to a report from Cryptoquant:
“Yesterday, the flow of coins in miner wallets going to spot exchanges recorded the highest value since May 16, 2023. In total, more than 4,000 Bitcoins flowed to spot exchanges, around $173 million in selling pressure. However, this selling pressure was calmly absorbed by the market.”
It’s critical to note that despite these interactions, the reserves in mining portfolios have remained consistent since the beginning of January, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed the selling pressure without significant price depreciation.
#3 Stablecoins Aka “Dry Powder” On The Rise
The stablecoin aggregated market cap serves as a precursor to potential market movements. Recently, the stablecoin aggregated market cap has shown a significant rebound, moving from a bottom of $119.5 billion in mid-October 2023 to nearing $130 billion.
This rise in stablecoin reserves is often interpreted as “dry powder,” ready to be deployed into assets like Bitcoin, potentially further accelerating the supply/demand mechanics. Alex Svanevik, founder of on-chain analysis platform Nansen, remarked on the correlation between stablecoin reserves and BTC price: “When stables on exchanges peaked, BTC price peaked.”
At press time, BTC traded at $42,848.